Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1089 at 12:35, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1089 Southwest	MEM 12:35	LAS 14:09	24%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 45m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	8h 26m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	7h 42m	97%	77%
United Details →	MEM 06:43 → IAH 08:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	3h 15m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	8h 30m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	2h 48m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421	8h 56m	98%	74%
United Details →	MEM 06:00 → EWR 09:43UA 3642 · flown by Republic	1h 11m Newark	EWR 10:54 → LAS 13:21UA 446	9h 21m	95%	73%
American Details →	MEM 05:13 → CLT 08:01AA 1846	1h 24m Charlotte	CLT 09:25 → LAS 11:14AA 2981	8h 01m	95%	71%
American Details →	MEM 05:37 → DFW 07:18AA 1940	1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:49 → LAS 09:38AA 1550	6h 01m	95%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MEM 18:03 → ATL 20:32DL 1681	47m Atlanta	ATL 21:19 → LAS 22:40DL 834	6h 37m	68%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON