tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2082 at 19:43, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2082 Delta Flight history → MEM 19:43 LAX 21:40 23% 6% 0.9% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 9h 23m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 52m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MEM 06:11 → PHL 09:45AA 5409 · flown by PSA 1h 15m Philadelphia PHL 11:00 → LAX 13:46AA 2408 9h 35m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370 3h 23m Detroit DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634 10h 03m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 8h 50m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827 7h 30m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → MEM 06:00 → BOS 10:01DL 5604 · flown by Republic 54m Boston BOS 10:55 → LAX 14:03DL 2004 10h 03m 92% 78%
UnitedDetails → MEM 06:43 → IAH 08:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 3h 53m Houston IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 9h 23m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MEM 10:53 → CLT 13:40AA 1790 53m Charlotte CLT 14:33 → LAX 16:30AA 1502 7h 37m 74% 51%
AmericanDetails → MEM 15:48 → DFW 17:31AA 1086 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:37 → LAX 19:55AA 2043 6h 07m 68% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON