Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4564 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 4564 MEM 06:18 → LGA 10:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 4807 MEM 14:45 → LGA 18:46 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4564 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 06:18	LGA 10:18	6%	2%	1.4%	87%
DL 5607 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 07:05	LGA 11:00	7%	2%	1.5%	81%
YX 5848 Republic	MEM 11:20	LGA 15:00	12%	5%	2.3%	no record
YX 5605 Republic	MEM 16:58	LGA 20:38	16%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 4807 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MEM 14:45	LGA 18:46	17%	7%	1.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON