Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 158 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 158 MEM 06:35 → MCO 09:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3054 MEM 17:20 → MCO 20:26 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 158 Southwest	MEM 06:35	MCO 09:42	4%	3%	0.9%	no record
F9 2130 Frontier Flight history →	MEM 23:08	MCO 02:06	29%	13%	1.5%	42%
WN 3054 Southwest	MEM 17:20	MCO 20:26	30%	10%	2.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON