Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3020 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3020 Southwest	MEM 05:10	MDW 06:55	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1317 Southwest	MEM 16:21	MDW 18:06	33%	10%	2.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 41m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 14m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 48m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 54m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	7h 09m	98%	57%
Delta Details →	MEM 12:09 → MSP 14:22DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	2h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	6h 08m	97%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON