Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 1340 at 05:34, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1340 American Flight history →	MEM 05:34	MIA 09:03	9%	5%	1.3%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 42m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	53m Minneapolis	MSP 09:07 → MIA 13:41DL 793	6h 41m	92%	71%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	5h 47m	97%	70%
American Details →	MEM 05:13 → CLT 08:01AA 1846	3h 01m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 58m	100%	67%
Delta Details →	MEM 18:03 → ATL 20:32DL 1681	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	5h 52m	94%	67%
American Details →	MEM 05:37 → DFW 07:18AA 1940	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:54 → MIA 12:55AA 1219	6h 18m	95%	67%
Delta Details →	MEM 16:21 → ATL 18:51DL 1700	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 18m	97%	66%
American Details →	MEM 06:11 → PHL 09:45AA 5409 · flown by PSA	1h 39m Philadelphia	PHL 11:24 → MIA 14:10AA 1989	6h 59m	100%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON