Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 5409 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5409 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 06:11	PHL 09:45	8%	4%	1.8%	98%
AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MEM 12:53	PHL 16:27	19%	7%	1.9%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → BOS 10:01DL 5604 · flown by Republic	2h 16m Boston	BOS 12:17 → PHL 14:01DL 5805 · flown by Republic	7h 01m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 43m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 42m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:20 → ATL 08:44DL 1624	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 04m	99%	84%
American Details →	MEM 05:13 → CLT 08:01AA 1846	1h 25m Charlotte	CLT 09:26 → PHL 11:15AA 2565	5h 02m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	MEM 08:27 → ATL 10:51DL 5247 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	6h 37m	98%	76%
American Details →	MEM 05:37 → DFW 07:18AA 1940	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:28 → PHL 12:45AA 2255	6h 08m	94%	75%
American Details →	MEM 07:03 → CLT 09:50AA 978	3h 12m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 47m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MEM 15:48 → DFW 17:31AA 1086	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242	6h 09m	67%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON