Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2462 at 10:15, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2462 Southwest	MEM 10:15	PHX 11:36	11%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Memphis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MEM 06:00 → MSP 08:14DL 3899 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	6h 43m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	MEM 06:32 → DTW 09:27DL 2370	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	9h 18m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MEM 05:15 → ATL 07:34DL 1666	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 48m	99%	78%
American Details →	MEM 06:11 → PHL 09:45AA 5409 · flown by PSA	1h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 10:48 → PHX 12:47AA 478	8h 36m	94%	76%
American Details →	MEM 05:13 → CLT 08:01AA 1846	3h 36m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	9h 43m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	MEM 07:15 → SLC 09:33DL 2290	1h 57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	6h 57m	95%	75%
American Details →	MEM 05:37 → DFW 07:18AA 1940	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:37 → PHX 10:16AA 2905	6h 39m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	MEM 09:27 → ATL 11:46DL 1149	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → PHX 14:18DL 366	6h 51m	97%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MEM 19:43 → LAX 21:40DL 2082	55m Los Angeles	LAX 22:35 → PHX 00:06 +1DL 3827 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	74%	56%
United Details →	MEM 14:22 → ORD 16:29UA 5780 · flown by SkyWest	51m Chicago	ORD 17:20 → PHX 19:08UA 2053	6h 46m	40%	17%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON