tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2185 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2185 United Flight history → MFR 05:00 DEN 08:33 8% 7% 0.7% 92%
UA 1412 United Flight history → MFR 13:10 DEN 16:43 25% 11% 0.7% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Medford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 2h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 10:15 → DEN 11:47DL 1553 5h 32m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 3h 21m San Francisco SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436 7h 33m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon 1h 13m Portland PDX 18:03 → DEN 21:35AS 1317 4h 43m 93% 69%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 10:31 → SEA 11:53AS 2114 · flown by Horizon 1h 23m Seattle SEA 13:16 → DEN 16:52AS 602 5h 21m 92% 47%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest 48m Phoenix PHX 08:30 → DEN 11:25AA 2602 5h 10m 69% 55%
UnitedDetails → MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest 53m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301 5h 12m 69% 53%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 48m San Francisco SFO 16:23 → DEN 19:55UA 1835 4h 44m 53% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON