tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3002 SkyWest MFR 16:36 LAX 18:43 15% 7% 0.7% no record
OO 3126 SkyWest MFR 07:02 LAX 09:08 16% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 1h 29m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 2h 13m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 6h 40m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 7h 12m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Phoenix PHX 10:44 → LAX 12:14AA 2027 6h 59m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 3h 21m San Francisco SFO 18:56 → LAX 20:35UA 1799 6h 24m 99% 68%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 06:04 → SEA 07:31AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 2h 39m Seattle SEA 10:10 → LAX 12:51AS 496 6h 47m 100% 68%
UnitedDetails → MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 +1UA 2179 5h 44m 95% 66%
UnitedDetails → MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412 1h 07m Denver DEN 17:50 → LAX 19:27UA 1753 6h 17m 79% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → MFR 06:04 → SEA 07:31AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 51m Seattle SEA 08:22 → LAX 10:59AS 1414 4h 55m 70% 49%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 50m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 3h 54m 55% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON