tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:15 → PDX 06:14AS 2098 · flown by Horizon 2h 49m Portland PDX 09:03 → SAN 11:38AS 721 6h 23m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → MFR 05:15 → SLC 08:08DL 3769 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 53m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533 6h 24m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185 2h 42m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 41m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → SAN 12:06AA 2122 6h 51m 94% 65%
UnitedDetails → MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 19:06 → SAN 21:04UA 1577 6h 53m 99% 64%
UnitedDetails → MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → SAN 00:50 +1UA 1389 6h 15m 97% 62%
AlaskaDetails → MFR 05:58 → SEA 07:20AS 2452 · flown by Horizon 3h 00m Seattle SEA 10:20 → SAN 13:07AS 650 7h 09m 100% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest 54m San Francisco SFO 21:01 → SAN 22:44UA 442 4h 09m 69% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON