Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3781 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 3781 MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest OO 127 MFR 17:31 → SEA 19:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3781 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 06:15	SEA 07:52	8%	6%	1.0%	98%
OO 3994 SkyWest	MFR 12:16	SEA 13:47	17%	7%	1.1%	no record
OO 3033 SkyWest	MFR 10:35	SEA 12:06	18%	7%	0.9%	no record
OO 127 SkyWest	MFR 17:31	SEA 19:02	19%	8%	1.1%	no record
AS 2452 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MFR 05:58	SEA 07:20	8%	<1%	4.4%	92%
AS 2040 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MFR 19:50	SEA 21:12	16%	6%	2.0%	84%
AS 2114 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	MFR 10:31	SEA 11:53	31%	4%	3.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON