Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1050 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1050 MFR 06:02 → SFO 07:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1754 MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1050 United	MFR 06:02	SFO 07:44	8%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 5883 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 18:35	SFO 20:07	29%	15%	0.8%	53%
UA 1754 United Flight history →	MFR 14:11	SFO 15:35	36%	16%	0.7%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON