Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3769 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MFR 05:15	SLC 08:08	7%	4%	0.7%	94%
OO 3865 SkyWest	MFR 13:25	SLC 16:22	13%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Medford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MFR 06:15 → SEA 07:52DL 3781 · flown by SkyWest	1h 38m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	5h 21m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	MFR 15:52 → PDX 16:50AS 2081 · flown by Horizon	3h 18m Portland	PDX 20:08 → SLC 23:04AS 730	6h 12m	100%	79%
American Details →	MFR 05:15 → PHX 07:42AA 6401 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Phoenix	PHX 10:21 → SLC 13:02AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	6h 47m	93%	76%
United Details →	MFR 05:00 → DEN 08:33UA 2185	3h 07m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	7h 13m	97%	74%
United Details →	MFR 14:11 → SFO 15:35UA 1754	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → SLC 22:12UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest	7h 01m	99%	67%
Alaska Details →	MFR 10:31 → SEA 11:53AS 2114 · flown by Horizon	2h 49m Seattle	SEA 14:42 → SLC 17:43AS 663	6h 12m	100%	59%
United Details →	MFR 13:10 → DEN 16:43UA 1412	2h 40m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	6h 46m	96%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MFR 18:35 → SFO 20:07UA 5883 · flown by SkyWest	47m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest	4h 24m	65%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON