Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5182 at 05:43 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day OH 5182 MHT 05:43 → CLT 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5120 MHT 17:16 → CLT 19:48 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5182 PSA	MHT 05:43	CLT 08:25	5%	3%	2.7%	no record
AA 5035 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 10:03	CLT 12:34	9%	4%	1.3%	93%
AA 5661 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MHT 11:50	CLT 14:21	11%	6%	1.4%	88%
OH 5120 PSA	MHT 17:16	CLT 19:48	20%	8%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON