tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 265 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 265 Southwest MHT 06:35 MCO 09:48 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3028 Southwest MHT 15:35 MCO 18:45 26% 10% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MHT 06:00 → DCA 07:55AA 5160 · flown by PSA 3h 05m Washington DCA 11:00 → MCO 13:35AA 1153 7h 35m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → MHT 09:25 → IAD 11:19UA 4857 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 16m Dulles IAD 12:35 → MCO 14:58UA 2206 5h 33m 93% 75%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:35 → PHL 09:14AA 6001 · flown by Piedmont 1h 54m Philadelphia PHL 11:08 → MCO 13:41AA 3268 6h 06m 91% 70%
AmericanDetails → MHT 07:14 → ORD 09:10AA 4150 · flown by Envoy 1h 28m Chicago ORD 10:38 → MCO 14:22AA 3293 7h 08m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → MHT 10:32 → PHL 12:09AA 5976 · flown by Piedmont 3h 55m Philadelphia PHL 16:04 → MCO 18:38AA 3262 8h 06m 100% 64%
AmericanDetails → MHT 10:03 → CLT 12:34AA 5035 · flown by PSA 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 15:01 → MCO 16:51AA 1611 6h 48m 95% 64%
AmericanDetails → MHT 11:50 → CLT 14:21AA 5661 · flown by PSA 3h 44m Charlotte CLT 18:05 → MCO 20:01AA 612 8h 11m 100% 61%
UnitedDetails → MHT 19:37 → IAD 21:35UA 4829 · flown by CommuteAir 58m Dulles IAD 22:33 → MCO 01:01 +1UA 689 5h 24m 75% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MHT 14:37 → IAD 16:35UA 4925 · flown by CommuteAir 47m Dulles IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45UA 2463 5h 08m 65% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON