Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–50%.

Safest bet that day DL 1249 MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1368 MIA 16:05 → ATL 18:06 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1249 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:00	ATL 08:01	9%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 1211 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:10	ATL 09:10	10%	4%	0.8%	93%
DL 1261 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:20	ATL 10:20	12%	5%	0.9%	93%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	MIA 07:54	ATL 09:56	22%	7%	0.7%	80%
DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	MIA 10:40	ATL 12:48	23%	6%	2.0%	85%
F9 2483 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 05:24	ATL 07:31	25%	8%	1.0%	82%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	MIA 12:05	ATL 14:12	32%	9%	3.6%	82%worse than usual
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	MIA 14:12	ATL 16:15	35%	13%	2.7%	75%
DL 719 Delta	MIA 19:48	ATL 21:52	36%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 1400 American	MIA 22:08	ATL 00:07	41%	15%	1.1%	no record
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:00	ATL 20:14	41%	13%	2.3%	59%
F9 2271 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:40	ATL 23:48	44%	17%	1.6%	79%worse than usual
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	MIA 16:51	ATL 18:55	44%	13%	2.3%	59%
AA 3261 American Flight history →	MIA 20:46	ATL 22:48	45%	18%	1.2%	63%
AA 1045 American Flight history →	MIA 20:04	ATL 22:09	47%	17%	1.2%	57%
F9 4405 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 17:28	ATL 20:00	47%	23%	3.7%	57%
AA 1368 American Flight history →	MIA 16:05	ATL 18:06	50%	20%	2.4%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON