Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 812 at 09:49 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 812 MIA 09:49 → AUS 11:57 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3890 MIA 13:50 → AUS 15:47 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 812 American Flight history →	MIA 09:49	AUS 11:57	19%	5%	1.0%	90%
MQ 4124 Envoy	MIA 13:37	AUS 15:36	34%	8%	3.5%	no record
DL 2344 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:05	AUS 21:13	34%	12%	1.4%	68%
AA 2629 American Flight history →	MIA 19:40	AUS 21:40	39%	13%	1.4%	73%worse than usual
AA 2324 American Flight history →	MIA 15:15	AUS 17:15	40%	15%	3.2%	59%
WN 3890 Southwest	MIA 13:50	AUS 15:47	44%	12%	2.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON