Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 3351 at 21:48, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3351 Envoy	MIA 21:48	AVL 23:55	26%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → AVL 11:07DL 3059	5h 07m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → AVL 13:25DL 1182	6h 15m	98%	84%
American Details →	MIA 08:15 → CLT 10:26AA 361	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	6h 04m	96%	83%
American Details →	MIA 08:57 → LGA 12:00AA 605	1h 10m New York	LGA 13:10 → AVL 15:20AA 4418 · flown by Republic	6h 23m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	6h 20m	98%	77%
American Details →	MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491	1h 05m Washington	DCA 10:05 → AVL 11:45AA 5213 · flown by PSA	5h 26m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 16:11 → AVL 17:19DL 3101	6h 39m	97%	71%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	6h 55m	98%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	57m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	4h 00m	74%	58%
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	58m Charlotte	CLT 16:46 → AVL 17:55AA 6032 · flown by Piedmont	4h 25m	65%	41%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:15DL 1332	47m Atlanta	ATL 17:02 → AVL 18:10DL 5121 · flown by Endeavor	3h 59m	47%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON