Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 1272 at 20:44, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1272 American Flight history →	MIA 20:44	BDL 23:55	34%	13%	1.1%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → BDL 12:48DL 1082	6h 48m	98%	85%
American Details →	MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491	3h 59m Washington	DCA 12:59 → BDL 14:27AA 5059 · flown by PSA	8h 08m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739	7h 56m	98%	79%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → BDL 13:33AA 2741	7h 09m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:34 → BDL 17:59DL 2735	7h 19m	95%	69%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011	7h 03m	94%	67%
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	3h 39m Charlotte	CLT 19:27 → BDL 21:30AA 3280	8h 00m	98%	63%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:15DL 1332	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19DL 2504	7h 07m	92%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 21:31 → BDL 23:54DL 1011	5h 54m	68%	48%
American Details →	MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 19:27 → BDL 21:30AA 3280	5h 29m	65%	43%
American Details →	MIA 19:05 → DCA 21:48AA 2648	59m Washington	DCA 22:47 → BDL 00:12 +1AA 974	5h 07m	56%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON