Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2226 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 2226 MIA 07:01 → BOS 10:31 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1074 MIA 18:20 → BOS 21:45 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2226 American	MIA 07:01	BOS 10:31	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 1399 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:30	BOS 14:59	26%	10%	1.3%	74%
AA 2134 American	MIA 10:25	BOS 13:46	27%	8%	3.6%	no record
DL 1784 Delta	MIA 20:00	BOS 23:16	32%	14%	1.0%	no record
AA 613 American	MIA 20:04	BOS 23:25	33%	14%	1.1%	no record
AA 2411 American	MIA 12:31	BOS 16:04	36%	15%	5.0%	no record
AA 1054 American Flight history →	MIA 21:45	BOS 00:59	36%	12%	1.0%	60%
AA 2143 American	MIA 13:17	BOS 16:39	39%	17%	3.8%	no record
AA 1074 American Flight history →	MIA 18:20	BOS 21:45	48%	19%	2.5%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON