Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 544 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 544 MIA 06:20 → BWI 09:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1246 MIA 17:38 → BWI 20:27 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 544 Southwest	MIA 06:20	BWI 09:07	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 2940 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 07:21	BWI 10:18	17%	7%	1.2%	71%
WN 4696 Southwest	MIA 12:35	BWI 15:23	31%	12%	4.9%	no record
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 21:12	BWI 23:52	37%	14%	1.4%	57%
AA 2104 American	MIA 16:07	BWI 18:49	41%	18%	3.4%	no record
WN 1246 Southwest	MIA 17:38	BWI 20:27	44%	18%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON