tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3867 Envoy MIA 16:27 CHS 18:25 30% 9% 4.9% no record
AA 2948 American Flight history → MIA 22:16 CHS 23:59 33% 12% 2.5% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107 6h 00m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179 6h 32m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129 52m Philadelphia PHL 10:30 → CHS 12:29AA 2447 5h 44m 91% 76%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381 5h 13m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 1h 59m Newark EWR 12:10 → CHS 14:16UA 1760 7h 09m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:15 → CLT 10:26AA 361 2h 47m Charlotte CLT 13:13 → CHS 14:25AA 5222 · flown by PSA 6h 10m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 33m Houston IAH 12:15 → CHS 16:02UA 6295 · flown by Mesa 7h 14m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850 6h 26m 94% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 59m Charlotte CLT 16:47 → CHS 18:01AA 3117 4h 31m 67% 43%
DeltaDetails → MIA 15:29 → LGA 18:45DL 1538 47m New York LGA 19:32 → CHS 22:02DL 4676 · flown by Endeavor 6h 28m 62% 35%
AmericanDetails → MIA 19:12 → CLT 21:19AA 1577 49m Charlotte CLT 22:08 → CHS 23:11AA 3064 3h 59m 40% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON