Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 363 American Flight history →	MIA 20:45	CLE 23:48	33%	12%	1.3%	67%
F9 4135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 16:03	CLE 19:05	39%	18%	2.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978	5h 32m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775	6h 22m	98%	81%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004	1h 44m Charlotte	CLT 10:04 → CLE 11:41AA 1294	5h 17m	98%	80%
American Details →	MIA 09:15 → PHL 12:10AA 551	3h 16m Philadelphia	PHL 15:26 → CLE 17:13AA 5581 · flown by PSA	7h 58m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545	7h 00m	98%	78%
American Details →	MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491	2h 42m Washington	DCA 11:42 → CLE 13:13AA 5535 · flown by PSA	6h 54m	98%	77%
American Details →	MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129	3h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 12:50 → CLE 14:38AA 5861 · flown by Piedmont	7h 53m	98%	76%
American Details →	MIA 08:15 → CLT 10:26AA 361	3h 06m Charlotte	CLT 13:32 → CLE 15:12AA 1562	6h 57m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → CLE 21:45DL 1339	4h 54m	56%	39%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	49m Detroit	DTW 17:42 → CLE 18:46DL 4954 · flown by Endeavor	5h 08m	57%	36%
United Details →	MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 20:02 → CLE 22:28UA 1156	6h 18m	61%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON