Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3004 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 3004 MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3194 MIA 17:31 → CLT 19:40 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3004 American Flight history →	MIA 06:24	CLT 08:20	12%	5%	1.3%	95%
AA 361 American Flight history →	MIA 08:15	CLT 10:26	16%	7%	1.8%	93%
AA 1965 American	MIA 08:48	CLT 10:57	19%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 1398 American	MIA 09:53	CLT 12:01	20%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 2231 American	MIA 21:54	CLT 00:02	30%	11%	1.1%	no record
F9 3037 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:25	CLT 13:42	31%	12%	2.3%	72%
AA 2297 American Flight history →	MIA 13:30	CLT 15:48	32%	14%	4.4%	78%worse than usual
AA 985 American Flight history →	MIA 16:01	CLT 18:22	37%	14%	2.9%	66%
F9 3700 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 18:48	CLT 21:04	39%	19%	3.3%	92%worse than usual
AA 1577 American Flight history →	MIA 19:12	CLT 21:19	40%	13%	1.2%	76%worse than usual
AA 3194 American	MIA 17:31	CLT 19:40	43%	16%	2.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON