Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 4085 Envoy	MIA 10:48	CMH 13:35	20%	5%	3.5%	no record
AA 3616 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 20:03	CMH 23:00	26%	8%	1.0%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522	5h 48m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	6h 28m	98%	87%
American Details →	MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491	1h 14m Washington	DCA 10:14 → CMH 11:48AA 4700 · flown by Republic	5h 29m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387	2h 19m New York	LGA 11:43 → CMH 13:39DL 5669 · flown by Republic	7h 14m	98%	85%
American Details →	MIA 06:56 → LGA 09:59AA 3205	3h 11m New York	LGA 13:10 → CMH 15:06AA 4684 · flown by Republic	8h 10m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 14:19 → CMH 15:58DL 2892	7h 38m	99%	85%
American Details →	MIA 08:32 → JFK 11:29AA 2341	3h 15m New York	JFK 14:44 → CMH 16:45AA 4767 · flown by Republic	8h 13m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:15 → LGA 11:16DL 2339	3h 14m New York	LGA 14:30 → CMH 16:32DL 5675 · flown by Republic	8h 17m	100%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 16:01 → CLT 18:22AA 985	47m Charlotte	CLT 19:09 → CMH 20:35AA 3330	4h 34m	48%	31%
American Details →	MIA 17:00 → ORD 19:53AA 3056	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 20:55 → CMH 23:33AA 4445 · flown by Republic	6h 33m	48%	29%
United Details →	MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106	52m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic	6h 14m	40%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON