Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3846 at 08:41 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–36%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3846 MIA 08:41 → CVG 11:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3472 MIA 18:26 → CVG 21:08 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3846 Envoy	MIA 08:41	CVG 11:25	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 4115 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 19:45	CVG 22:35	24%	7%	1.3%	80%
AA 3472 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 18:26	CVG 21:08	36%	9%	2.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON