Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 491 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 491 MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 667 MIA 18:25 → DCA 20:59 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:19	DCA 09:00	9%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 2848 American	MIA 08:02	DCA 10:43	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1612 American Flight history →	MIA 09:52	DCA 12:33	20%	6%	0.9%	85%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	26%	7%	1.6%	70%
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	31%	10%	1.9%	76%
AA 1595 American	MIA 12:03	DCA 14:45	32%	13%	5.6%	no record
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:26	DCA 18:08	35%	13%	2.9%	58%
AA 861 American	MIA 13:51	DCA 16:32	38%	14%	3.8%	no record
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:21	DCA 22:59	39%	12%	1.9%	74%worse than usual
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	40%	14%	2.0%	63%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	52%	18%	4.0%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON