Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2045 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 2045 MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1923 MIA 12:35 → DEN 14:49 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2045 United Flight history →	MIA 07:37	DEN 10:00	10%	4%	0.7%	91%
F9 1279 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DEN 08:23	15%	5%	0.9%	85%
AA 2436 American	MIA 09:52	DEN 12:02	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1292 American	MIA 20:35	DEN 22:48	38%	11%	1.3%	no record
UA 2852 United Flight history →	MIA 15:45	DEN 18:24	41%	15%	1.7%	82%worse than usual
WN 1923 Southwest	MIA 12:35	DEN 14:49	42%	12%	4.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON