Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1226 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 1226 MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2828 MIA 17:36 → DFW 19:42 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1226 American Flight history →	MIA 05:25	DFW 07:40	13%	4%	1.4%	91%
AA 2575 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	DFW 09:19	15%	6%	1.6%	85%
AA 1227 American Flight history →	MIA 09:00	DFW 11:12	21%	6%	1.3%	83%
AA 893 American	MIA 09:33	DFW 11:46	22%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 3055 American Flight history →	MIA 11:00	DFW 13:15	31%	11%	2.2%	74%
AA 1679 American Flight history →	MIA 21:54	DFW 23:59	37%	12%	1.4%	74%worse than usual
AA 1287 American Flight history →	MIA 12:10	DFW 14:24	37%	15%	8.1%	70%
F9 2135 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 14:30	DFW 16:50	41%	18%	3.7%	77%worse than usual
AA 1824 American Flight history →	MIA 15:23	DFW 17:36	42%	16%	3.3%	63%
AA 2183 American	MIA 13:59	DFW 16:12	43%	16%	5.7%	no record
AA 2289 American	MIA 19:36	DFW 21:49	45%	14%	1.7%	no record
AA 3259 American Flight history →	MIA 16:53	DFW 19:14	49%	17%	3.3%	73%worse than usual
F9 1359 Frontier	MIA 18:44	DFW 21:06	50%	23%	3.7%	no record
AA 2828 American Flight history →	MIA 17:36	DFW 19:42	52%	18%	3.3%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON