Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3436 at 09:56 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–34%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3436 MIA 09:56 → EYW 11:04 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3413 MIA 16:15 → EYW 16:56 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3436 Envoy	MIA 09:56	EYW 11:04	12%	3%	1.4%	no record
MQ 3827 Envoy	MIA 08:55	EYW 09:56	13%	3%	1.5%	no record
AA 3577 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 12:28	EYW 13:39	24%	7%	5.6%	85%
MQ 3438 Envoy	MIA 18:15	EYW 19:23	25%	7%	4.7%	no record
MQ 3413 Envoy	MIA 16:15	EYW 16:56	34%	9%	5.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON