Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 3754 at 20:40, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3754 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 20:40	GSO 22:57	21%	6%	1.1%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 10:18 → GSO 11:37DL 3052	5h 37m	97%	85%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:29 → GSO 13:15AA 3886 · flown by Envoy	7h 50m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539	7h 10m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:49 → GSO 14:04DL 3060	6h 54m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387	1h 19m New York	LGA 10:43 → GSO 12:24DL 5132 · flown by Endeavor	5h 59m	96%	79%
American Details →	MIA 08:57 → LGA 12:00AA 605	3h 27m New York	LGA 15:27 → GSO 17:27AA 4574 · flown by Republic	8h 30m	99%	77%
United Details →	MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864	2h 06m Newark	EWR 12:17 → GSO 14:14UA 4509 · flown by GoJet	7h 07m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005	7h 08m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → GSO 22:43DL 1617	4h 43m	61%	46%
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	1h 10m Charlotte	CLT 16:58 → GSO 17:52AA 3133	4h 22m	73%	44%
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:03 → GSO 17:50AA 2242	6h 50m	50%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON