Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3037 at 05:30, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3037 Southwest	MIA 05:30	HOU 07:12	11%	4%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	7h 10m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 42m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 00m	84%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 17m	68%	51%
American Details →	MIA 15:23 → DFW 17:36AA 1824	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 25m	58%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON