tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2435 at 13:10, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2435 United Flight history → MIA 13:10 IAD 15:53 21% 10% 3.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → IAD 14:39DL 2135 7h 29m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → IAD 11:41DL 1444 5h 41m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:09 → IAD 14:03AA 524 8h 38m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:31DL 2902 7h 51m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 7h 50m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 36m Houston IAH 12:18 → IAD 16:35UA 2366 7h 47m 93% 70%
FrontierDetails → MIA 17:28 → ATL 20:00F9 4405 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 23:16 → IAD 01:23 +1F9 3692 7h 55m 92% 67%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 3h 47m Charlotte CLT 19:35 → IAD 21:02AA 1954 7h 32m 99% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297 1h 00m Charlotte CLT 16:48 → IAD 18:28AA 5447 · flown by PSA 4h 58m 68% 51%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 1h 18m Chicago ORD 20:11 → IAD 23:09UA 304 6h 59m 70% 37%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:36 → DFW 19:42AA 2828 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:53 → IAD 00:49 +1AA 2254 7h 13m 60% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON