Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2417 at 08:48 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 2417 MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 678 MIA 14:04 → IAH 15:50 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	16%	8%	1.0%	85%
AA 1347 American	MIA 07:59	IAH 09:46	20%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	27%	13%	3.9%	87%worse than usual
MQ 3358 Envoy	MIA 15:29	IAH 17:12	28%	9%	2.2%	no record
F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:21	IAH 13:12	30%	12%	2.1%	85%worse than usual
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	35%	16%	2.2%	74%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 20:12	IAH 21:59	36%	14%	1.1%	70%
AA 678 American Flight history →	MIA 14:04	IAH 15:50	37%	16%	3.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON