tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 3897 at 21:58, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3897 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 21:58 ILM 23:59 22% 7% 1.4% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731 6h 33m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:15 → CLT 10:26AA 361 2h 39m Charlotte CLT 13:05 → ILM 14:19AA 5809 · flown by Piedmont 6h 04m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129 3h 34m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → ILM 14:59AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont 8h 12m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292 7h 23m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → ILM 12:14AA 5416 · flown by PSA 5h 50m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070 6h 05m 91% 70%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:15 → LGA 11:16DL 2339 3h 13m New York LGA 14:29 → ILM 16:42DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor 8h 23m 100% 67%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:52 → DCA 12:33AA 1612 57m Washington DCA 13:30 → ILM 15:08AA 5313 · flown by PSA 5h 16m 80% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070 4h 56m 63% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON