tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 34–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2862 American MIA 15:25 IND 18:16 34% 17% 2.4% no record
AA 2518 American Flight history → MIA 20:59 IND 23:50 36% 14% 1.1% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387 2h 21m New York LGA 11:45 → IND 14:06DL 5642 · flown by Republic 7h 41m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 6h 36m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:15 → LGA 11:16DL 2339 3h 27m New York LGA 14:43 → IND 17:13DL 5646 · flown by Republic 8h 58m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 1h 43m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 7h 00m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 2h 35m Chicago ORD 11:43 → IND 13:57AA 4713 · flown by Republic 7h 17m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134 6h 59m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129 1h 07m Philadelphia PHL 10:45 → IND 12:55AA 5240 · flown by PSA 6h 10m 93% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:19 → DCA 09:00AA 491 55m Washington DCA 09:55 → IND 11:54AA 4701 · flown by Republic 5h 35m 89% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:36 → DFW 19:42AA 2828 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:44 → IND 23:58AA 766 6h 22m 54% 28%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:00 → ORD 19:53AA 3056 1h 04m Chicago ORD 20:57 → IND 23:11AA 4740 · flown by Republic 6h 11m 50% 27%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 5h 55m 40% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON