Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 27–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4069 MIA 13:50 → JAX 15:17 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest MQ 4023 MIA 17:50 → JAX 19:24 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4069 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 13:50	JAX 15:17	27%	9%	4.0%	77%
MQ 4024 Envoy	MIA 12:28	JAX 13:59	27%	9%	4.4%	no record
AA 416 American Flight history →	MIA 22:53	JAX 00:15	34%	13%	1.3%	52%
MQ 4023 Envoy	MIA 17:50	JAX 19:24	34%	10%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON