Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 525 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–51%.

Safest bet that day AA 525 MIA 06:29 → JFK 09:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2600 MIA 18:50 → JFK 21:50 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 525 American Flight history →	MIA 06:29	JFK 09:26	7%	3%	1.1%	92%
DL 2428 Delta Flight history →	MIA 07:05	JFK 10:03	9%	3%	1.0%	88%
AA 2341 American Flight history →	MIA 08:32	JFK 11:29	15%	5%	1.1%	84%
AA 2062 American	MIA 10:22	JFK 13:20	29%	10%	3.5%	no record
DL 1473 Delta	MIA 11:29	JFK 14:22	29%	9%	1.5%	no record
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:17	JFK 18:50	30%	14%	2.0%	73%
AA 944 American Flight history →	MIA 21:51	JFK 00:59	31%	11%	1.5%	64%
AA 2899 American Flight history →	MIA 13:53	JFK 16:51	36%	15%	4.5%	61%
DL 1794 Delta	MIA 19:49	JFK 22:43	40%	14%	1.4%	no record
AA 1357 American Flight history →	MIA 19:50	JFK 23:01	41%	14%	1.5%	56%
AA 2124 American	MIA 16:30	JFK 19:35	42%	17%	3.0%	no record
AA 2600 American	MIA 18:50	JFK 21:50	51%	20%	2.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON