Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1490 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–47%.

Safest bet that day AA 1490 MIA 08:20 → LAS 10:28 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3321 MIA 17:21 → LAS 19:39 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1490 American	MIA 08:20	LAS 10:28	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1173 American	MIA 09:51	LAS 11:58	27%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 726 American Flight history →	MIA 21:55	LAS 00:15	35%	13%	1.1%	66%
AA 3321 American Flight history →	MIA 17:21	LAS 19:39	47%	18%	3.1%	65%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 13m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	7h 25m	92%	73%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:49 → LAS 09:38AA 1550	7h 13m	92%	68%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:32 → LAS 11:21AA 1482	7h 21m	91%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON