Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 713 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 713 MIA 07:07 → LAX 09:34 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2458 MIA 21:53 → LAX 00:33 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 713 American Flight history →	MIA 07:07	LAX 09:34	19%	6%	0.8%	89%
AA 3288 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	LAX 12:24	24%	7%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AA 960 American Flight history →	MIA 08:55	LAX 11:28	24%	7%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	33%	13%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
AA 996 American	MIA 15:58	LAX 18:25	39%	18%	2.3%	no record
AA 3014 American Flight history →	MIA 13:52	LAX 16:21	40%	18%	4.1%	73%worse than usual
AA 2458 American	MIA 21:53	LAX 00:33	40%	13%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 45m	94%	77%
American Details →	MIA 07:28 → PHX 09:23AA 1983	1h 21m Phoenix	PHX 10:44 → LAX 12:14AA 2027	7h 46m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	7h 45m	94%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON