Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2387 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 2387 MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2271 MIA 18:12 → LGA 21:17 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2387 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:25	LGA 09:24	6%	2%	1.2%	87%
AA 3205 American Flight history →	MIA 06:56	LGA 09:59	11%	3%	1.2%	90%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:15	LGA 11:16	11%	4%	1.2%	76%
AA 605 American Flight history →	MIA 08:57	LGA 12:00	15%	4%	1.2%	88%
AA 2424 American	MIA 09:56	LGA 12:57	20%	5%	1.3%	no record
DL 1498 Delta	MIA 11:36	LGA 14:32	25%	8%	2.0%	no record
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:29	LGA 18:45	29%	11%	2.6%	72%
AA 2484 American	MIA 12:42	LGA 15:45	33%	12%	7.2%	no record
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:40	LGA 22:59	33%	9%	1.8%	57%
AA 1389 American Flight history →	MIA 20:40	LGA 23:44	36%	11%	1.7%	58%
AA 2262 American	MIA 19:54	LGA 22:56	39%	12%	1.8%	no record
AA 897 American	MIA 15:27	LGA 18:27	39%	14%	3.2%	no record
AA 552 American	MIA 14:49	LGA 17:48	40%	14%	3.1%	no record
AA 2172 American	MIA 16:41	LGA 19:47	43%	16%	3.4%	no record
AA 2271 American Flight history →	MIA 18:12	LGA 21:17	46%	15%	3.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON