tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 29–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3710 Envoy MIA 14:10 MCI 16:32 29% 9% 4.8% no record
AA 670 American Flight history → MIA 21:45 MCI 23:59 34% 10% 1.3% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 8h 59m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 7h 13m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 09m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004 3h 08m Charlotte CLT 11:28 → MCI 13:00AA 3233 7h 36m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408 2h 53m Newark EWR 14:47 → MCI 17:02UA 3436 · flown by Republic 9h 14m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:33 → MCI 12:21AA 1376 7h 56m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 9h 45m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:10 → MCI 18:58AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 8h 58m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 15:23 → DFW 17:36AA 1824 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:35 → MCI 20:20AA 2267 5h 57m 61% 33%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323 50m Atlanta ATL 19:45 → MCI 20:56DL 1130 5h 05m 47% 32%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:53 → DFW 19:14AA 3259 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:18 → MCI 22:13AA 595 6h 20m 59% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON