Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3781 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 3781 MIA 06:05 → MCO 07:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1610 MIA 17:00 → MCO 18:16 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3781 Southwest	MIA 06:05	MCO 07:16	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1693 American Flight history →	MIA 07:01	MCO 08:13	12%	5%	1.0%	97%
DL 8841 Delta	MIA 03:22	MCO 04:27	14%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 2587 American Flight history →	MIA 09:37	MCO 10:38	21%	7%	1.0%	83%
AA 875 American	MIA 21:21	MCO 22:35	33%	14%	1.4%	no record
AA 3174 American	MIA 22:50	MCO 00:04	34%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 2803 American Flight history →	MIA 19:19	MCO 20:38	39%	15%	1.5%	60%
AA 9786 American	MIA 15:21	MCO 16:39	41%	17%	3.2%	no record
AA 1635 American	MIA 13:55	MCO 15:09	42%	16%	4.4%	no record
AA 2495 American Flight history →	MIA 18:41	MCO 19:55	46%	19%	3.2%	70%worse than usual
WN 1782 Southwest	MIA 18:51	MCO 20:02	47%	17%	2.8%	no record
AA 1610 American	MIA 17:00	MCO 18:16	48%	16%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON