Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3714 at 15:02, with a 50% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3714 Southwest	MIA 15:02	MDW 17:06	50%	13%	3.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 35m	94%	67%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 24m	90%	62%
Delta Details →	MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 18:10 → MDW 18:35DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	5h 57m	83%	61%
Frontier Details →	MIA 17:28 → ATL 20:00F9 4405	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MDW 00:06 +1F9 2291	7h 38m	90%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 10m	68%	48%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 15m	57%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON