Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 1551 at 22:28, with a 38% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1551 American Flight history →	MIA 22:28	MEM 23:55	38%	13%	1.1%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 22m	98%	83%
American Details →	MIA 09:52 → DCA 12:33AA 1612	3h 19m Washington	DCA 15:52 → MEM 17:25AA 4497 · flown by Republic	8h 33m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733	6h 54m	98%	80%
American Details →	MIA 06:56 → LGA 09:59AA 3205	2h 13m New York	LGA 12:12 → MEM 14:12AA 4807 · flown by Republic	8h 16m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 32m	97%	79%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:35 → MEM 14:16AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	8h 16m	99%	78%
American Details →	MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129	59m Philadelphia	PHL 10:37 → MEM 12:19AA 5040 · flown by PSA	6h 34m	92%	76%
American Details →	MIA 08:15 → CLT 10:26AA 361	2h 26m Charlotte	CLT 12:52 → MEM 13:46AA 2852	6h 31m	95%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510	59m Atlanta	ATL 15:11 → MEM 15:33DL 1700	4h 28m	65%	48%
American Details →	MIA 18:52 → ORD 21:19AA 2194	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	6h 26m	61%	35%
American Details →	MIA 13:30 → CLT 15:48AA 2297	48m Charlotte	CLT 16:36 → MEM 17:32AA 1786	5h 02m	49%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON