tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:14DL 2020 7h 14m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 8h 27m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 8h 01m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → OKC 12:56AA 1626 7h 32m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:36 → OKC 11:49AA 3099 7h 24m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:52 → DCA 12:33AA 1612 2h 01m Washington DCA 14:34 → OKC 16:56AA 2475 8h 04m 92% 72%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 27m Denver DEN 13:27 → OKC 16:10UA 1656 9h 33m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 6h 42m 94% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 5h 17m 70% 52%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:52 → LAX 16:21AA 3014 1h 09m Los Angeles LAX 17:30 → OKC 22:37AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 9h 45m 68% 51%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 1h 00m Houston IAH 19:56 → OKC 21:27UA 1084 5h 34m 65% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON