tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:36 → SEA 10:53DL 506 3h 37m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 12h 45m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 10m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:28 → PHX 09:23AA 1983 1h 17m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → ONT 12:06AA 2661 7h 38m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:34 → ONT 11:52AA 2956 9h 27m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:14 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 9h 32m 99% 71%
FrontierDetails → MIA 11:21 → IAH 13:12F9 1067 3h 00m Houston IAH 16:12 → ONT 17:50F9 3131 9h 29m 96% 64%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:05 → ATL 14:12DL 1510 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 25m 96% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:45 → SFO 20:09UA 2810 51m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 8h 52m 52% 36%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:15DL 1332 50m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 7h 18m 52% 33%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852 56m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 57m 48% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON