Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 775 American Flight history →	MIA 21:14	ORF 23:37	26%	12%	1.5%	67%
MQ 3799 Envoy	MIA 14:08	ORF 16:37	30%	9%	5.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755	5h 28m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:14DL 2925	7h 04m	98%	85%
American Details →	MIA 06:56 → LGA 09:59AA 3205	2h 58m New York	LGA 12:57 → ORF 14:27AA 4358 · flown by Republic	7h 31m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → ORF 15:34DL 1101	7h 14m	98%	80%
American Details →	MIA 06:24 → CLT 08:20AA 3004	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → ORF 12:52AA 1323	6h 28m	98%	78%
Frontier Details →	MIA 05:24 → ATL 07:31F9 2483	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 09:28 → ORF 11:15F9 3072	5h 51m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 23:45 → ORF 01:19 +1DL 2338	7h 19m	96%	74%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:14 → ORF 14:29AA 2282	9h 04m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:13 → ORF 18:29AA 2288	7h 29m	66%	43%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:12 → ATL 16:15DL 1332	52m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346	4h 42m	55%	39%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:51 → ATL 18:55DL 1323	59m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984	4h 51m	55%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON