Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2129 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2129 MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3169 MIA 18:10 → PHL 21:09 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2129 American Flight history →	MIA 06:45	PHL 09:38	7%	4%	0.9%	92%
AA 551 American Flight history →	MIA 09:15	PHL 12:10	14%	5%	1.0%	86%
AA 1918 American	MIA 11:18	PHL 14:18	25%	10%	2.2%	no record
AA 2188 American Flight history →	MIA 22:04	PHL 00:55	27%	11%	1.8%	76%
AA 3274 American	MIA 20:11	PHL 23:16	31%	15%	1.5%	no record
AA 2191 American	MIA 13:49	PHL 16:49	37%	16%	5.1%	no record
F9 4954 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 20:45	PHL 23:53	39%	19%	2.4%	71%
F9 3380 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 14:45	PHL 17:51	40%	21%	3.3%	77%worse than usual
AA 2795 American	MIA 17:01	PHL 20:00	40%	18%	2.9%	no record
AA 3169 American	MIA 18:10	PHL 21:09	41%	17%	3.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON